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VEA 2000

The Case for Restoring Statewide Environmental Geographical Analysis

Presented at the Virginia Environmental Assembly 2000

September 16, 2000

Have We Lost the Big Picture?

How a neighbor Bay State maps and analyzes statewide land use, projects land use trends, and shares information with other agencies and local governments, toward guiding smart growth. How do Virginia trends compare, and what should this mean for responsible growth planning? With Virginia?s state environmental planning, growth planning, and EcoMaps offices closed, where do we go from here? What are Virginia?s other environmental mapping needs? Not just for planners.

Introduction

Eileen Rowan, Conservation Chair

Virginia Audubon Council

12211 Welling Hall Rd, Doswell, Virginia 23047

(804) 227-3044, erowan@aol.com

Ms. Rowan is an environmental scientist on the board of directors of the Virginia Conservation Network. She has been supervisory surface-water hydrologist for the Suwannee River Water Management District in Florida and research hydrologist with the U.S. Geological Survey in Virginia. At the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality, she researched aquatic and fish tissue toxics, coordinated the state's Chesapeake Bay Program toxics and atmospheric deposition activities, and managed grant reporting for Virginia's Coastal Zone Management Program. She received a bachelor's degree in liberal arts from Loyola University in New Orleans and, following six years of work in the communications industry, a master's degree in environmental engineering sciences from the University of Florida.

My interest in geographical analysis for environmental management goes back to the late 1980s when I supervised water programs for Suwannee River Water Management District. The beautiful rivers of North Central Florida are subject to dangerous annual floods. We needed and used GIS to map the floodplain to guide development. Agriculture dominates these watersheds. Directly below them is a fragile honeycomb of world-famous underwater caves. Punched throughout are crystal-clear springs considered national jewels. We needed and used GIS to locate the sensitive areas. We wanted to buy the most ecologically sensitive floodplain lands. There were old-growth forests, primeval swamps, vast coastal marshes. We needed and used GIS to optimize our limited dollars.

In the early 90s, I mapped groundwater quality in Virginia?s coastal plain aquifers. I could not have done it without GIS. We were studying the Chickahominy River to learn how point and nonpoint sources of pollution, changing land uses, and road crossings, were affecting its health. We could not have meshed so many sources of information without GIS.

When I came to the Virginia Water Control Board, our job was identifying toxic hot spots, and trying to figure out what had caused them. We needed to connect our sampling to things like permitted water discharges, old waste lagoons, smokestacks. When I asked for GIS, it was patiently explained to me by management that GIS was just a tool for drawing pretty report covers.

When we became part of the new DEQ, I was glad that we finally would have access to the GIS EcoMaps program that came to DEQ from the Council on the Environment, another one of the four agencies that became DEQ.

Within a short time I learned the EcoMaps program had been terminated, the GIS equipment had been given away, ultimately landing at what was then the Department of Economic Development, and we were losing the staff.

And though today a few isolated state programs use GIS for narrow functions, there is no state environmental agency today that feels a lead responsibility for blending datasets into crosscutting analyses and policy. By law, however, DEQ, is the "superagency," if you will, responsible for crosscutting reporting, policy and planning, and coordination across all the environmental agencies. In reality, it never happened.

Today our biggest concern is land use changes. Virginia once had a growth planning office which intended to use GIS to help monitor and project changes, so that we could guide growth wisely. That office is now gone. Despite decades of studies and recommendations, there is today no state environmental office combining datasets statewide to make land planning information available to localities.

There?s no question we must recover lost ground. But what could we really do with such a capability? That?s what we?re here to discuss today.

Presentors

Richard Eberhart Hall, A.I.C.P., Manager, Environmental Planning and GIS Support

Maryland Department of Planning

301 W. Preston St., Room 1101, Baltimore, MD 21201

410/767-4560, Rhall@mdp.state.md.us

Mr. Hall has served for approximately fifteen years in North Carolina and Maryland at the state and local government levels. He is on the board of directors of the Maryland chapter of the American Planning Association and of 1000 Friends of Maryland. He received a bachelor?s degree in urban and regional planning from East Carolina University and a master?s degree in city and regional planning from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

[NOTE: VCN will be adding additional information on Mr. Hall?s presentation and links to Maryland?s Smart Growth initiatives in the near future.]

Jean Tingler, Director of Presentation Systems

Virginia Economic Development Partnership

901 E. Byrd St., Richmond, VA 23219

804/371-0340, jtingler@yesvirginia.org

Ms. Tingler has served the Commonwealth of Virginia in several environmental agencies, including: water quality monitoring and GIS projects for the Chesapeake Bay Local Assistance Department, the EcoMAPS program at the Council on the Environment, and the Water Quality Assessments Division at the State Water Control Board. Prior to working for the Commonwealth, Jean worked at Hunter Holmes McGuire Veteran?s Medical Center in infectious disease research. Jean received her bachelor?s degree in biology and environmental science from the University of West Alabama and a master?s degree in biology from Western Kentucky University.

Waldon R. Kerns, Ph.D., Professor of Resource Economics

Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University

Dept. of Applied Economics, 315 Hutcheson Hall, Blacksburg, VA 24061

540/231-5995, kernsw@vt.edu

Since 1975, Dr. Kerns has been Professor of Resource Economics at Virginia Tech, where he has taught courses and conducted research/outreach activities on natural resource and environmental issues at the state, regional, national and international level. He has served on numerous state and regional commissions and committees. At present he is a member of the Commonwealth's Non-point Source Advisory Committee and chairs the Chesapeake Bay Program's Scientific and Technical Advisory Committee. Dr. Kerns is co-author of Chesapeake Futures: Choices for the 21st Century, to be published by the Chesapeake Bay Program this year, in which over 50 scientists and technical experts imagine what the Bay and its watershed will become over the next 30 years.

 

Virginia Environmental Assembly 2000

September 16, 2000 

A Regional Tour of Our Future Virginia 

Introduction 

Eileen Rowan, Conservation Chair

Virginia Audubon Council 

12211 Welling Hall Rd, Doswell, Virginia 23047

(804) 227-3044, erowan@aol.com 

Ms. Rowan is an environmental scientist on the board of directors of the Virginia Conservation Network. She has been supervisory surface-water hydrologist for the Suwannee River Water Management District in Florida and research hydrologist with the U.S. Geological Survey in Virginia. At the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality, she researched aquatic and fish tissue toxics, coordinated the state's Chesapeake Bay Program toxics and atmospheric deposition activities, and managed grant reporting for Virginia's Coastal Zone Management Program. She received a bachelor's degree in liberal arts from Loyola University in New Orleans and, following six years of work in the communications industry, a master's degree in environmental engineering sciences from the University of Florida. 

Welcome to you all.

There is always a great deal of energy that is generated when the Virginia conservation community comes together. I believe this energy is intensified by the knowledge that we have just arrived in a sparkling new millennium -- a blank slate, awaiting our signature.

When, after a decade of government environmental management, I left to assist the Audubon Society with conservation work in Virginia, it was due to a concern that the work of scientists was being delivered almost exclusively to government. And that means, by the time it reaches the public, it has been filtered through a political system. Some may believe that with today*s information overload, this is for the best. I contend that this filter complicates, rather than simplifies. It adds additional and distracting information * that is, political concerns.

I see a better system in this new century of information technology, a system in which science and the people are brought together, with few or no filters. A stronger citizen-scientist relationship brings a new set of responsibilities. Scientists are challenged to convey the meaning of their findings directly to the public. Citizens are challenged to understand their world and their role in it.

We know it isn*t easy. Too often we lose sight of the forest for the trees.... the sky for the pollen count... the ocean for the water samples... the life itself around us for the bag limit. So for a little while this morning, let*s stretch our minds to encompass the biggest possible picture of Virginia, now, and tomorrow.

I am honored to introduce a group of five nationally recognized researchers and authors who have bravely risen to this challenge. They have been given this very difficult assignment: to summarize what is known about their region*s current environmental health. And a far tougher assignment: to project what environmental conditions our children*s generation might expect.

If we aren*t willing to look that far ahead, we should all go back for civics training.

The workshops are intended to connect very tightly to this plenary session. Here we define the challenges, so we can be focused, on common ground, on solutions in the workshops.

The economist Kenneth Boulding said: "We can expect to be surprised by the future. But we don*t have to be utterly dumbfounded."

After hearing these reports, I think we*ll agree we have our work cut out for us. Let*s also agree for the day to accept these reports as our common language for our workshop discussions. This will help us keep that long-range focus on our children and our grandchildren that this conference is all about. 

 

Net Links 

Below are selected links which provide further information

on key topics discussed by the speakers. 

Virginia Overview 

Habitats and Species: "Geography of Virginia"

http://geog.gmu.edu/gess/classes/geog380/5habitat.html 

Virginia Gap Analysis Project -- Tracking Biodiversity Trends

http://fwie.fw.vt.edu/WWW/vagap/index.htm 

Virginia Biodiversity Laws - Biodiversity Center - Defenders of Wildlife

http://ipl.unm.edu/cwl/statbio/virginia.htm 

Climate Change in Virginia

http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/impacts/stateimp/virginia/index.html 

Long-Term Water-Quality Trends in Virginia Waterways

http://www.vwrrc.vt.edu/wq97/help.html 

Marine Conservation, National Coalition for Marine Conservation

http://www.savethefish.org/ 

Regional Air Quality Trends

http://www.epa.gov/oar/ 

Mid-Atlantic Regional Air Management Association (MARAMA). Surprising recent regional trends analyses on Virginia air quality:

http://www.marama.org/ 

Summer haze and white skies: it*s not the humidity, it*s the smog (interacting with humidity)

http://www.epa.gov/oar/vis/epahaze/haze.html 

 

The Southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge 

Southern Appalachian Man and the Biosphere Program. (And find out about SAMAB's 11th Annual Conference--November 14-16, 2000 at Gatlinburg, Tennessee)

http://sunsite.utk.edu/samab/ 

Excellent update on: The Health of Southern Forests, by

USDA Forest Service Forest Health Protection, Southern Region

http://fhpr8.srs.fs.fed.us/hosf/hosftoc.htm

The Dying of the Trees: A Forest of Tree Skeletons

http://www.tompaine.com/features/1999/09/17/ 

Appalachian Voices

http://www.appvoices.org/ 

Information on Steve Nash* book, Blue Ridge 2020, including reviews at Steve Nash* website:

http://blueridge2020.com/HomePage.html 

Blue Ridge 2020 is available from local booksellers. Or you may order directly from the University of North Carolina Press with a credit card by calling 1-800-848-6224,

or online at

http ://www.ibiblio.org/uncpress/newsbytes/march99/nash.html 

 

Shenandoah to the Bay: The Chesapeake Watershed 

The Chesapeake Futures Report which Dr. Kerns excerpted will not be available till late 2000. Check here for updates and more information at Chesapeake Futures Online:

http://www.chesapeake.org/futures/index.html 

Chesapeake Bay Program Environmental Indicators. Great presentation of Bay health findings.

http://www.chesapeakebay.net/indicators.htm 

Extraordinarily easy search and order online for Chesapeake Bay Program publications.

http://www.chesapeakebay.net/search/sitesearch.htm 

Superb chronology of issues in managing the Chesapeake Bay, by searching Bay Journal articles since 1994; from air quality to horseshoe crabs, and what the heck is a TMDL... it*s all there.

http://www.bayjournal.com/ 

 

The Great Dismal Swamp 

The Virginia Pilot Special Series: The Shrinking Dismal Swamp

http://www.pilotonline.com/special/dismal/ 

 

Virginia*s Ocean, Islands and Seacoast 

General. 

Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment: Condition of the Mid-Atlantic Estuaries, 1998

http://www.epa.gov/emap/html/pubs/docs/groupdocs/estuary/assess/cond_mae.htm 

Virginia Coastal Zone Management. The Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) is the state*s designated lead agency for Virginia*s networked coastal zone management program under the federal Coastal Zone Management Act. "The Director of the Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) shall monitor all state actions that affect coastal resources..."

http://www.deq.state.va.us/coastal/ 

Sea level rise. 

Virginia*s coastal beaches and marshes are getting squeezed out of existence as buildings and shoreline "protection" prevent their natural migration inland from sea level rise; plus, the role of climate change. 

Overview of Coastal Zone Sea Level Rise: Implications for Atlantic Coast

http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/impacts/coastal/ 

The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 1998, North America Coastal Systems Summary

http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/publications/reference/ipcc/chp8/america13.html 

Rising Seas, Coastal Erosion, and the Takings Clause: How to Save Wetlands and Beaches Without Hurting Property Owners, by James G. Titus of the EPA

http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/publications/impacts/sealevel/takings.html 

Against the Tide: The Battle for America's Beaches, 1999, by Cornelia Dean, New York Times Science Editor. Surprisingly interesting reading about the incredibly expensive and frequently disastrous efforts to save buildings at the expense of natural areas with jetties, groins, and seawalls, and the problems with beach renourishment. Case studies of places we know and love like Sandbridge, Chincoteague, the Outer Banks, and Cape May.

http://www.columbia.edu/cu/cup/catalog/data/023108/0231084188.htm 

Curtailing the continued introduction of exotic species by marine shipping into the Chesapeake Bay. 

Information and recommendations for action may be found in the following reports, which may be ordered by emailing a request to the Chesapeake Bay Commission:

pcress@ari.net

      The Introduction of Nonindigenous Species to the Chesapeake Bay via Ballast Water, January 1995

      Submerged Aquatic Vegetation Restoration and Conflicts with Seafood Harvesting Techniques, May 1998.  

Large-scale shallow-water farming (aquaculture). 

Potential habitat harm from leasing huge tracts of coastal shallow waters for large-scale farming:

Inquire about 1999 legislative study (HJ660), sponsored by Del. Tayloe Murphy, by emailing Russ Baxter, Director, Virginia Office, Chesapeake Bay Commission at

rbaxter@leg.state.va.us

    Bottomland uses; submerged aquatic vegetation. Requests the Virginia Delegation to the Chesapeake Bay Commission to undertake an examination of a number of issues identified by it during an examination of activities with potential impacts to submerged aquatic vegetation. Issues to be addressed include: (i) changes needed in the Code of Virginia to better accommodate leasing for intensive aquaculture operations; (ii) development of criteria which the Virginia Marine Resources Commission (VMRC) would use to identify areas on state-owned bottomland (not included in the Baylor survey) where leases would be granted for intensive aquaculture operations; and (iii) changes needed in the Code of Virginia to allow VMRC to designate submerged aquatic vegetation restoration areas as components of leases contingent on the development of criteria, including geographic criteria, of areas likely to support submerged aquatic vegetation re-growth and restoration.  

    Murky Waters: Environmental Effects of Aquaculture in the United States

    By Rebecca Goldburg and Tracy Triplett of Environmental Defense, 1997

    http://www.environmentaldefense.org/pubs/Reports/Aquaculture/

     

    The Southern Appalachian Mountains and Valleys 

    John D. Peine, Ph.D., Research Sociologist

    Southern Appalachian Field Laboratory, U. S. Geological Survey,

    Biological Resources Division 

    108 Hoskins Library, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996-4015

    865/974-4056, jpeine@utk.edu 

    John Peine is a scientist with the US Geological Survey stationed at the Southern Appalachian Field Laboratory at the University of Tennessee in Knoxville. From 1982-1992, he was chief scientist at Great Smoky Mountains National Park. He is editor of Ecosystem Management for Sustainability: Principles and Practices Illustrated by a Regional Biosphere Reserve Cooperative, published in 1999 by Lewis Publishers. This book documents the work of the Southern Appalachian Man and the Biosphere Cooperative on The Southern Appalachian Assessment. His current research focuses on characterizing landscape settings of protected areas including land cover patterns, water resources, and land use policy. 

    Dr. Peine*s presentation is in bulleted form, organized by 1) high elevation forests, and 2) lower elevation forests and river valleys. For each of these two regions, he lists the good and bad news, for both the short term and the long term, along with how the public citizen can make a difference. 

    Drivers of Environmental Change

    --Climate change

    --Land use conversion

    --Pollution sources

    --Exotic species

    --Pests and pathogens 

    High Elevation Forests -- Short Term:

    Bad news:

    --High elevation forests are in decline due to air pollution, pests and pathogens.

    --Spruce-Fir forests are decimated by the balsam wooly adelgid and air pollution.

    --Northern hardwoods are in serious decline as well but the cause is less certain.

    --Beech gaps are highly stressed by a pathogen.

    --Grassy balds not mechanically maintained are vanishing.

    Good news:

        --Better understanding of air pollution deposition, primary sources and environmental effects provides promise to reduce the problem via the Southern Appalachian Mountain Initiative.

    --Selected balds are being maintained. 

    High Elevation Forests -- Long Term:

    Bad news:

        --Spruce-fir forest as we know it will likely vanish from the landscape due to climate change, pests and air pollution.

        --Northern hardwoods will likely continue to decline unless stressors are reduced.

        --Species composition and distribution of high elevation forests may change dramatically due to climate change.

    Good news:

        --The potential of improved air quality via the Southern Appalachian Mountain Initiative.

        --Elk are likely to be repatriated in the Southern Appalachian forests. 

    High Elevation Forests -- How to Make a Difference:

        --Follow progress of the Southern Appalachian Mountain Initiative.

        --Be alert to state level policy implications.

        --Champion the spruce-fir forest. Call for seed orchards to sustain the Frasier Fir to preserve genetically distinct strains.

        --Request more research and monitoring of northern hardwood forests.

        --Adopt an unmaintained grassy bald. 

    Lower Elevation Forests and River Valleys * Short Term:

    Bad news:

        --The health of lower elevation forests is also declining due to air pollution, pests and pathogens and exotic species.

        --Lower elevation forests are becoming fragmented by land use conversion.

        --Chip mills are proliferating in the region, each consuming thousands of acres of forests per year.

        --Gypsy moths have repeatedly defoliated deciduous forests.

        --Species-specific pests and pathogens regularly become a serious problem, first for the American chestnut, followed by the dogwood, butternut, oaks and eastern hemlock.

        --Ozone pollution damages foliage from selected tree species such as wild cherry, tulip poplar and white pine.

        --Increased problems with bears occur as they ranging from protected areas into developed adjacent-lands.

        --Loss of farms and farm lands, particularly on urban fringes is a rapidly increasing problem.

        --An increasing number of rivers and streams not meeting water quality standards.

      Good news:

        --Several wildlife species are making a comeback in the southern Appalachian highlands and valleys such as bear, deer, turkey, beaver, raccoons, peregrine falcon, bald and golden eagles.

        --Genetic research may lead to reintroduction of American Chestnut resistant to the blight.

        --Studies by the federal government and the state of North Carolina are reviewuating the impact of chip mills.

        --Excellent models of public policy to control urban sprawl and protect farms, forests and open space occur in adjacent states.

    Lower Elevation Forests and River Valleys * Long Term:

    Bad news:

        --Global warming with increase the incidents and frequency of pests and pathogens threatening native species.

        --Land use conversion will likely lead to a significant reduction and fragmentation of forests.

        --The viability of agriculture will continue to decline dramatically due to a loss of a critical number of farms and escalating value of agricultural lands.

        --Watersheds will experience a proliferation of point and non-point sources of pollution.

    Good news:

        --A congressional study released a few days ago indicates a national concern for urban sprawl among city and county governments.

        --The Government Accounting Office found 340 federal programs administered by 13 departments to assist local governments with sprawl-related revitalization. Both urban and rural communities expressed the need for emphasis on protecting farmland, parks and open space from development. 

    Lower Elevation Forests and River Valleys *How to Make a Difference:

        --Look into progressive policies in sustainable development in place in neighboring states, e.g., ridgetop protection ordinance, signage along the Blue Ridge Parkway, and the plan to add one million acres of protected lands by North Carolina; and sustainable development strategies by Maryland.

        --Get to know those 340 federal programs designed to combat sprawl.

        --Advocate land use planning and natural resource sensitivity analysis at all levels of government.

        --Join or form a land conservancy.

        --Get to know the status of your rivers and streams. For those not meeting water quality standards, find out what are the primary sources of pollution creating the problem. Ask to see the recovery plan required by the federal clean water act.

        --Take a farmer out to lunch and talk about the benefits of organic farming.

        --Convert your yard into native plant/wildlife habitat. Kill your lawnmower and television! 

     

    The Blue Ridge 

    Steve Nash, Associate Professor of Journalism

    University of Richmond 

    9108 Windover Court, Richmond, VA 23229

    804/289-8323, nash@richmond.edu 

    Steve Nash is an associate professor of journalism at the University of Richmond who writes about environmental issues and teaches environmental reporting. His book Blue Ridge 2020: An Owner's Manual, published in 1999 by the University of North Carolina Press, won the Southern Environmental Law Center's Phillip Reed Prize for journalism about Southern environmental issues, in June, 2000. His reporting has appeared in BioScience, The Scientist, National Parks, The Washington Post, The Christian Science Monitor and other newspapers and magazines; his opinion-editorial pieces have appeared in dozens of Southeastern newspapers. Blue Ridge 2020 draws on over a hundred technical sources and dozens of interviews with scientists and experts. 

    The Blue Ridge ecosystem is a treasure-house of biological diversity, stretching 550 miles from southern Pennsylvania to northern Georgia, with a long section through Virginia. The Blue Ridge Parkway runs through most of this ecosystem's 17,000 square miles, as does the Appalachian Trail, linking Shenandoah National Park with Great Smoky Mountains National Park, and seven different national forests. About a third of these mountains are in public hands -- the largest concentration of public lands east of the Mississippi -- and we are truly the stewards of its future. 

    The Blue Ridge shelters more than 200 different species of birds, 29 kinds of snakes, more than 1,400 different flowering plants, at least 70 species of fish, 70 species of mammals, and more than 130 tree species -- nearly as many as in all of Europe. But several powerful forms of human disturbance threaten to narrow this diversity, and they are doing so now. 

    * Air pollution not only sickens humans, but is also acidifying streams and soils in the Blue Ridge, diminishing and sometimes erasing fish populations in Virginia and other states and, some scientists believe, affecting the health of trees. 

    * Sprawl and road-building in the mountains obliterate wildlife habitat and create biological edges that are making feeding and breeding more difficult for the many species that need deep forests to survive. Migratory songbirds are an example of a whole class of species whose populations are often dwindling because of "edge effects." 

    * Indiscriminate logging operations denude whole landscapes and generate erosion that drowns streams in silt, killing fish and other organisms. Trees may eventually grow back, but much of the complex forest ecosystem may not recover. 

    * Exotic pests, from kudzu to gypsy moths, inadvertently brought into North America, are often responsible for disrupting ecosystems and threatening species. More are arriving each year, due to increased travel and trade and weak regulations. 

    Each of these threats can be met, if the political will is sufficient. Solutions abound.

     

    Shenandoah to the Bay * the Chesapeake Watershed 

    Waldon R. Kerns, Ph.D., Professor of Resource Economics

    Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University 

    Dept. of Applied Economics, 315 Hutcheson Hall, Blacksburg, VA 24061

    540/231-5995, kernsw@vt.edu 

    Since 1975, Dr. Kerns has been Professor of Resource Economics at Virginia Tech, where he has taught courses and conducted research/outreach activities on natural resource and environmental issues at the state, regional, national and international level. He has served on numerous state and regional commissions and committees. At present he is a member of the Commonwealth's Non-point Source Advisory Committee and chairs the Chesapeake Bay Program's Scientific and Technical Advisory Committee. Dr. Kerns is co-author of Chesapeake Futures: Choices for the 21st Century, to be published by the Chesapeake Bay Program this year, in which over 50 scientists and technical experts imagine what the Bay and its watershed will become over the next 30 years. 

    Chesapeake Futures is an undertaking to visualize what the Chesapeake Bay will become over the next 30 years. The futures study provides objective views of plausible futures for the Bay and the actions that could lead to these futures. The analyses are organized around three scenarios, each representing plausible outcomes by 2030: recent trends, current commitments and feasible alternatives.  

    Critical Trends: Demographic and Economic 

    The population in the entire watershed is expected to grow 16%, and additional 3 million people from 2000-2025, from just over 15 million to over 18 million. Most of the growth occurs in Maryland and Virginia, which go from constituting 67% of the watershed population to 70% in 2025. The report contains projected population changes by county. 

    Changes in population serves as the driving force for many activities associated with impacts on land and water resources.  

    Implications for Land and Water Resources 

    If recent trends continue, we will see a significant reversal in the progress that has been made within the watershed. Large amounts of resource lands will be converted to development, impacting agricultural, forest, and environmental resource lands and local streams and watersheds. If recent trends materialize, nitrogen and phosphorus loads will be well above the established cap by 2030. 

    Under current objectives, land use conversion would be reduced by over 50% from that estimated under recent trends. It is assumed that soon after the year 2000, nutrient loads will be reduced to levels close to the cap. However, by 2030, loads will increase considerably, largely due to new development. Despite the fact that pollution from agriculture in this scenario will be managed at levels approximately equal to those needed to achieve the goals of the tributary strategies, the increased load from new development (point and non-point sources) more than offset these benefits. As in the case under recent trends, nutrient loads in the Bay as a whole and in many parts of the watershed will exceed the levels needed to achieve and maintain the nutrient cap. 

    If feasible alternatives were widely implemented the majority of new growth between 2000 and 2030 would be concentrated in areas with sewer at relatively high densities. Progressive land conservation practices would be extensively employed throughout the watershed. Land use change and conversion would be reduced by another 50% or more beyond what could be achieved under current objectives. Advanced technologies to control pollution from agricultural, storm water, and point sources would also be routinely practiced. As a result, pollution loads in 2030 would remain under the nutrient cap. The increase resulting from new development, accommodating the 3.8 million additional people would be very small.  

     

     

     

    The Great Dismal Swamp 

    Lloyd A. Culp, Jr., Refuge Manager

    Great Dismal Swamp National Wildlife Refuge, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 

    P. O. Box 349, Suffolk, VA 23439-0349

    757/986-3705, lculpjr495@aol.com 

    Mr. Culp, a wildlife biologist, has managed the refuge for eleven years. He is a graduate of Auburn University with a bachelor*s degree in wildlife management. His prior career duties with our national wildlife refuges include training at St. Marks and Eufala National Wildlife Refuges in Florida and Alabama/Georgia; assistant refuge manager at Tennessee and Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuges in Tennessee and Georgia/Florida; and refuge manager at Great Meadows National Wildlife Refuge in Massachusetts. 

    The Great Dismal Swamp was a dominant feature of the landscape 200 years ago, as it may have covered as much as 1,000,000 acres in what is now southeastern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina. Over the past two centuries, most of the swamp has been cleared and drained for residential and commercial development, highways, and agriculture. Today, the Great Dismal Swamp is only a fraction of its original size. 

    The Great Dismal Swamp National Wildlife Refuge was established in 1974 for the primary purpose of restoring and perpetuating the largest remaining remnant of the swamp. Today, the refuge incorporates 109,000 acres in Virginia and North Carolina and has played an important role in preserving the biological diversity in the swamp watershed over the past 25 years. Moreover, progress has been made in hydrologic restoration and the restoration of fire-dependent habitats within the refuge. 

    Severe development pressures, however, threaten to make the refuge an ecological isolate. Major highways and commercial/residential development virtually surround the refuge, making it increasingly difficult for some wildlife, particularly black bears, to travel to and from other natural areas within the Great Dismal Swamp watershed. These wildlife populations may ultimately become inbreeding populations, which could inflict insidious health problems for the animals. 

    The urban encroachment also inhibits basic habitat restoration on the refuge. Some residents of nearby residential developments fear that refuge hydrologic restoration creates flooding problems on their property. Implementing an aggressive prescribed burning program to restore fire-dependent habitats is difficult when the fires and smoke could affect over 1,000,000 people, major highways, and airports. More recently, some neighbors believe the refuge may be threatening the health of people and horses by contributing to the spread of mosquito-borne pathogens such as eastern equine encephalitis. 

     

    Virginia*s Ocean, Islands and Seacoast 

    Mark Luckenbach, Ph. D., Professor of Marine Science

    Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William and Mary 

    757/787-5816, luck@vims.edu 

    Dr. Luckenbach has been with the faculty of the Virginia Institute of Marine Science at the College of William and Mary since 1985. He received a bachelor*s degree in zoology from the University of North Carolina and a Ph.D. in biology from the University of South Carolina. He is currently a professor of marine science in VIMS* biology and fisheries departments, and he has served as director of VIMS* Eastern Shore Laboratory since 1992. His research in estuarine ecology, restoration ecology, and aquaculture has included such diverse topics as shorebird foraging dynamics, oyster reef restoration, the ecology of non-native oyster species, shellfish aquaculture development, seagrass ecology, and the impacts of agriculture on water quality. He is active in marine resource management issues through service on numerous advisory and policy-setting boards at the county, state and national levels.  

    The demographic trends which have lead to a boom in coastal populations show little signs of abating. Currently, over 38% of the population of the mid-Atlantic Region lives on the 19% of the land located within the coastal zone and that figure could climb to 50% within a few decades. This population growth places increasing pressures on coastal ecosystems and the services which they provide for us. 

    Over the past half century we have come to recognize and begin to redress a number of the adverse impacts of this demographic trend on coastal ecosystems. First, there is broad recognition that our coastal waters cannot be used as a dumping ground for our wastes. Tremendous progress has been made in reducing point sources of pollution and we have begun tackling the more difficult issue of non-point source pollution, including the need to deal with groundwater and atmospheric inputs. Similarly, for another one of "last century*s" problems, we now recognize that the bounty of our coastal waters cannot be limitlessly harvested. Fisheries management efforts have imposed meaningful limits on the catch of many species and we are beginning to see real improvements in some fisheries stocks. Though much remains to be done on both of these fronts, I am confident that the war can be won. 

    Among the challenges we face in managing our coastal zone and its waters in the coming decades, three stand out above the others in terms of their impact on coastal ecosystems and our use of them. The first of these is the myriad of issues raised by global climate change and sea level rise. It is now quite clear that an accelerating rate of sea level rise will affect our coastlines and coastal communities in many ways. Decisions that we make now about the use of our coastline will be with us for the next half-century. For instance, if we continue virtually everywhere to harden our shorelines and build without regard for sea level rise, we are certain to face not only escalating costs of fighting this ultimately futile battle, but also gravely endanger coastal ecosystems. 

    Growth in shipping associated with international commerce is assured in Virginia*s coastal zone. As a major part of the engine driving regional economic growth, this expansion is unlikely to be thwarted by environmental concerns. Our challenge is to ensure that as part of this growth, serious efforts are made to protect the delicate balance of coastal ecosystems. Among our concerns should be threats posed by the introduction of exotic species in ship ballast waters. Such introductions have the potential to affect local fisheries, regional biodiversity and ecosystem stability, so we need to find ways to manage and reduce their impacts. 

    Aquaculture, previously little more than a cottage industry in our coastal zone, is expanding rapidly and will continue to do so over the next several decades. Quite literally agriculture has moved beyond the land-water boundary and is now occurring on very significant scales in the shallow waters of our coastal zone. For instance, on Virginia*s Eastern Shore farm-raised, cultured clams are the third most valuable agricultural crop. This can be a very positive trend, providing greater sustainability than wild fisheries, but it raises the issues related to environmental impacts and private versus public ownership of our coastal waters which have not yet been addressed by Virginians. 

    In combination, these issues point to the need for a broad-based discussion in Virginia about how we are going to manage our shorelines, shallow waters and navigable waterways. Ultimately, I contend that this must lead us to an integrated zoning process which includes both the lands and waters of our coastal zone and which not only accommodates various economic interests, but seeks to maintain the ecosystem services on which we so depend.



    Virginia Environmental Assembly 2000

    September 16, 2000

    Have We Lost the Big Picture?

    The Case for Restoring Statewide Environmental Geographical Analysis

     

    How a neighbor Bay State maps and analyzes statewide land use, projects land use trends, and shares information with other agencies and local governments, toward guiding smart growth. How do Virginia trends compare, and what should this mean for responsible growth planning? With Virginia?s state environmental planning, growth planning, and EcoMaps offices closed, where do we go from here? What are Virginia?s other environmental mapping needs? Not just for planners.

    Introduction

     

    Eileen Rowan, Conservation Chair

    Virginia Audubon Council

    12211 Welling Hall Rd, Doswell, Virginia 23047

    (804) 227-3044, erowan@aol.com

    Ms. Rowan is an environmental scientist on the board of directors of the Virginia Conservation Network. She has been supervisory surface-water hydrologist for the Suwannee River Water Management District in Florida and research hydrologist with the U.S. Geological Survey in Virginia. At the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality, she researched aquatic and fish tissue toxics, coordinated the state's Chesapeake Bay Program toxics and atmospheric deposition activities, and managed grant reporting for Virginia's Coastal Zone Management Program. She received a bachelor's degree in liberal arts from Loyola University in New Orleans and, following six years of work in the communications industry, a master's degree in environmental engineering sciences from the University of Florida.

    My interest in geographical analysis for environmental management goes back to the late 1980s when I supervised water programs for Suwannee River Water Management District. The beautiful rivers of North Central Florida are subject to dangerous annual floods. We needed and used GIS to map the floodplain to guide development. Agriculture dominates these watersheds. Directly below them is a fragile honeycomb of world-famous underwater caves. Punched throughout are crystal-clear springs considered national jewels. We needed and used GIS to locate the sensitive areas. We wanted to buy the most ecologically sensitive floodplain lands. There were old-growth forests, primeval swamps, vast coastal marshes. We needed and used GIS to optimize our limited dollars.

    In the early 90s, I mapped groundwater quality in Virginia?s coastal plain aquifers. I could not have done it without GIS. We were studying the Chickahominy River to learn how point and nonpoint sources of pollution, changing land uses, and road crossings, were affecting its health. We could not have meshed so many sources of information without GIS.

    When I came to the Virginia Water Control Board, our job was identifying toxic hot spots, and trying to figure out what had caused them. We needed to connect our sampling to things like permitted water discharges, old waste lagoons, smokestacks. When I asked for GIS, it was patiently explained to me by management that GIS was just a tool for drawing pretty report covers.

    When we became part of the new DEQ, I was glad that we finally would have access to the GIS EcoMaps program that came to DEQ from the Council on the Environment, another one of the four agencies that became DEQ.

    Within a short time I learned the EcoMaps program had been terminated, the GIS equipment had been given away, ultimately landing at what was then the Department of Economic Development, and we were losing the staff.

    And though today a few isolated state programs use GIS for narrow functions, there is no state environmental agency today that feels a lead responsibility for blending datasets into crosscutting analyses and policy. By law, however, DEQ, is the "superagency," if you will, responsible for crosscutting reporting, policy and planning, and coordination across all the environmental agencies. In reality, it never happened.

    Today our biggest concern is land use changes. Virginia once had a growth planning office which intended to use GIS to help monitor and project changes, so that we could guide growth wisely. That office is now gone. Despite decades of studies and recommendations, there is today no state environmental office combining datasets statewide to make land planning information available to localities.

    There?s no question we must recover lost ground. But what could we really do with such a capability? That?s what we?re here to discuss today.

    Presentors

    Richard Eberhart Hall, A.I.C.P., Manager, Environmental Planning and GIS Support

    Maryland Department of Planning

    301 W. Preston St., Room 1101, Baltimore, MD 21201

    410/767-4560, Rhall@mdp.state.md.us

    Mr. Hall has served for approximately fifteen years in North Carolina and Maryland at the state and local government levels. He is on the board of directors of the Maryland chapter of the American Planning Association and of 1000 Friends of Maryland. He received a bachelor?s degree in urban and regional planning from East Carolina University and a master?s degree in city and regional planning from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

    [NOTE: VCN will be adding additional information on Mr. Hall?s presentation and links to Maryland?s Smart Growth initiatives in the near future.]

    Jean Tingler, Director of Presentation Systems

    Virginia Economic Development Partnership

    901 E. Byrd St., Richmond, VA 23219

    804/371-0340, jtingler@yesvirginia.org

    Ms. Tingler has served the Commonwealth of Virginia in several environmental agencies, including: water quality monitoring and GIS projects for the Chesapeake Bay Local Assistance Department, the EcoMAPS program at the Council on the Environment, and the Water Quality Assessments Division at the State Water Control Board. Prior to working for the Commonwealth, Jean worked at Hunter Holmes McGuire Veteran?s Medical Center in infectious disease research. Jean received her bachelor?s degree in biology and environmental science from the University of West Alabama and a master?s degree in biology from Western Kentucky University.

     

    Waldon R. Kerns, Ph.D., Professor of Resource Economics

    Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University

    Dept. of Applied Economics, 315 Hutcheson Hall, Blacksburg, VA 24061

    540/231-5995, kernsw@vt.edu

    Since 1975, Dr. Kerns has been Professor of Resource Economics at Virginia Tech, where he has taught courses and conducted research/outreach activities on natural resource and environmental issues at the state, regional, national and international level. He has served on numerous state and regional commissions and committees. At present he is a member of the Commonwealth's Non-point Source Advisory Committee and chairs the Chesapeake Bay Program's Scientific and Technical Advisory Committee. Dr. Kerns is co-author of Chesapeake Futures: Choices for the 21st Century, to be published by the Chesapeake Bay Program this year, in which over 50 scientists and technical experts imagine what the Bay and its watershed will become over the next 30 years.


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